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By Jeremaiah Opiniano

MANILA (The Filipino Connection) 鈥� The Philippines awaits anxiously the outcomes of a May 9 national election and a new government鈥檚 pathways to moving forward from a pandemic and from a rowdy political climate.

At stake for over-66 million Filipino voters are hopes of rebuilding their economic lives, of electing 鈥渂etter鈥� leaders, and of having an improved political landscape.

Electoral outcomes, however, all depend on how these registered voters process the 鈥渃orrect鈥� information they get, which may have confused their supposedly informed vote.

Poll surveys frontrunner Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. consistently called for national unity. Lurking in his background, however, are histories of his father鈥檚 鈥渃onfirmed鈥�-but-disputed economic gains, multi-billion dollar corruption and ill-gotten wealth, human rights violations, and beneficial infrastructure projects.

Outgoing Vice President Maria Leonora Robredo appealed to Filipinos鈥� rational thinking to say that usual ills in Philippine governance must end. State auditors have confirmed her office鈥檚 projects as judiciously spent, but critics lambast Robredo鈥檚 ties with former Philippine presidents 鈥攕urnamed Aquino鈥� who 鈥渃onfirmed鈥� to have not improved Filipinos鈥� lives during their regimes.

Other candidates 鈥擣rancisco Domagoso (mayor of the Philippine capital Manila), boxing legend Emmanuel Pacquiao, Senator Panfilo Lacson, Jr., and five others鈥� have offered their platforms even if poll surveys see them lagging behind the runaway frontrunner Marcos, Jr.

Getting information

The Philippines鈥� 2022 elections also mark the second time that social media sways Filipinos towards partisanship, divisiveness, and receipt of both 鈥渇actual鈥� and 鈥渇alse鈥� information. Outside of Facebook, Twitter and now TikTok, the working Filipino class just tries to get information through old-fashioned ways.

While guarding a building in Sampaloc district in Manila, 鈥淚 got handed this plastic,鈥� 24-year-old 鈥淏runo鈥� (not his real name) says. That clear plastic carried a white paper, with pictures of the five leading presidential candidates, and a comic pamphlet dashed in pink ink.

Passengers have reasoned with me many times, taxi driver Virgilio Burunquit, 61, narrates. 鈥淩obredo voters have asked me if I want further corruption. But wait, have accusations against Marcos been proven?

End of the Duterte regime

Former Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte steps down as president this June 30th. Supporters laud Duterte鈥檚 tough stance in his anti-drugs policy (including the alleged wanton killing of drug users and pushers), as well as pre-pandemic years of 鈥渉igh鈥� economic growth (2017-2019 average: some six percent) and big-ticket infrastructure development.

Critics, however, thumbed down the sitting government鈥檚 mishaps in handling the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak; the economic recession of 2020 (which many governments worldwide felt); and a ballooning national debt 鈥�60 percent of gross domestic product鈥� that the new government will inherit.

Marcos, Jr. owes to President Duterte the burial of his father, former 20-year president Ferdinand Sr., in a cemetery for national heroes last November 2016. The president鈥檚 daughter, outgoing Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio, is Marcos鈥� running mate and a runaway leader too in vice presidential poll surveys.

(President Duterte, however, did not publicly endorse any specific candidate as campaigning ended May 7th.)

The Office of the Vice President got politically sidelined by the Duterte presidency in most of these past six years. In response, Robredo鈥檚 office implemented development projects and handed out aid especially during natural disasters and during this running Covid-19 pandemic.

Modern Filipino political rivalry

Robredo narrowly beat Marcos, Jr. for vice president in 2016 by some 280,000 votes, that even a national recount of electronic ballots affirmed Robredo鈥檚 win after Marcos鈥� electoral protest.

Duterte won the presidency overwhelmingly, with him leading by a handy 6.6 million votes over then-Senator Mar Roxas.

鈥淲e should guard our votes,鈥� Marcos, Jr. said in a recent rally, 鈥渁nd not let our win snatched away from us.鈥�

鈥�Panalo ka na (You win already)!鈥�, Marcos鈥� supporters shouted in his end-campaign rally Saturday night, May 7th.

Confusions, discontents

But this recent campaign has sowed confusions and disconnections among Filipinos in deciphering who truly 鈥渓eads鈥� the political horserace.

Poll survey firms that employed scientific multi-stage random sampling got criticized for allegedly missing out or underrepresenting certain population segments (particularly voters belonging to high-income families). Two former national statisticians think this approach by polling firms may present questionable results.

Spanning various rounds and months, Marcos, Jr. leads these poll surveys by at least 28 percent. Eve-of-election poll survey results by two Philippine polling firms (Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations) have predicted actual election results correctly most of the time.

Drone videos and photos of campaign rallies, however, capture shots of jampacked crowds that then get flooded on social media. 鈥淕uesstimates鈥� (or guess estimates) swirl over social media, with pundits and observers providing either 鈥渁ccurate鈥� or 鈥渂loated鈥� numbers.

Observers said Robredo 鈥渓eads鈥� in rally attendances over Marcos, Jr.

Online trends, especially through Google Trends, add up to the confusion. Filipino users type names of the candidates to see if these search queries draw up numbers. Google Trends show Robredo trending more over Marcos, Jr. with margins similar to Marcos鈥� lead in poll surveys.

Some analysts even juxtaposed Philippine Google Trends results to France鈥檚. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron trended more on Google Trends over Marie Le Pen, and he eventually won the May 1 elections. But Pulse Asia鈥檚 Ana Marie Tabunda said these online trends do not equate to voting preference.

The political battle went traditionally offline too, with some supporters resorting to community and house visits to hand out pamphlets and giveaways, and to explain information verbally.

But online misinformation and disinformation swarmed voters鈥� minds. A mid-2021 survey of over-7,700 university students showed that only 32 percent of them got more than six answers correctly in a ten-item quiz to on identifying 鈥渇ake鈥� news.

鈥淭hey think they know the correct information, but only a few can discern what is the correct information,鈥� says political scientist Dr. Ador Torneo of De La Salle University, sensing that misinformation and disinformation may ruin democratic institutions.

What 鈥榠nformed vote鈥�?

Confusions and discontents to these incomparable poll surveys, campaign rally attendances and online trending results may have diluted Filipino voters鈥� supposedly informed vote. The deluge of offline and online political information 鈥攃orrect, corrected, false and falsified information鈥� may have made voters hard pressed to make the right choices, says Torneo.

Even some candidates鈥� disregard of presidential debates, organized by the Commission on Elections (Comelec) and by varied Philippine broadcast media companies, has tumbled down the public鈥檚 understanding of platforms of government, Torneo adds.

Instead, the recent campaign period that began last February 8 saw candidates use messaging that 鈥渁ppeals to emotions and nostalgia,鈥� Torneo thinks.

鈥淚t is about winning people over, without going into (understanding the) basic information鈥�.

At stake

The Philippines regained democratic freedoms in 1986 after (alleged) electoral fraud by Ferdinand Marcos, Sr. led to a bloodless 鈥淧eople Power鈥� revolution in February that year. Catapulting former housewife Corazon Aquino to the presidency signaled the end of Marcos Sr.鈥檚 martial law era. However, online trolls, social media pundits and numerous current-day Filipinos, young and old, discredit martial law and laud its gains.

Some 36 years after the events of February 1986, Marcos, Jr.鈥檚 projected win this May 9 may signal the political redemption of the Marcoses (say their supporters) and the comeback of alleged corruption and bad governance under a democracy (say Marcos鈥� critics).

Domagoso called on the country鈥檚 tax agency to collect over-P203 billion (US$3.8 billion) 鈥攊n current-day rates鈥� of estate taxes from the Marcos family. The Philippine Supreme Court even promulgated such collection of estate taxes with finality in a 1999 decision.

Marcos, Jr. said 鈥渢here鈥檚 a lot of fake news鈥� roaming around his family鈥檚 allegedly unpaid estate taxes.

Economic turning point?

Outcomes of May 9 also provide a turning point for the Philippines鈥� desires to move forward from the pandemic and to catch up and achieve targets of a long-term plan, called Ambition 2040, for economic prosperity.

The Philippines (population: 110 million) is currently entering a window period called the 鈥渄emographic transition.鈥� This means that working-age citizens outnumber young and elderly dependents, providing a situation that more savings and investments from that bulging labor force get invested in the country.

That demographic bonus is estimated to last until 2070, say government economic planners. On top of that, a 10-million overseas Filipino population connect to their motherland by sending more cash remittances. The record-high US$31.4 billion cash remittances last year helped bail the Philippines out of further economic collapse.

Lucky for the country, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is dissipating since March. But with the global economy still teetering from pandemic-induced recessions, rising inflation and business disruptions and closures, the Philippines currently bears the brunt of being cash-strapped since the pandemic had to be mitigated and Filipinos be provided support.

The Philippines has 鈥渓imited resources available to face (economic) storms head-on,鈥� says economist Dr. Alvin Ang of Ateneo de Manila University. 鈥淢ore promises of spending are simply difficult (to do) because of the lack of resources and limited revenue generation.鈥�

How the human mind handles political information

In the midst of overflowing information about candidates, the economist Ang had called on voters to 鈥渃arefully process each candidate鈥檚 platform and decide if the (candidates鈥�) plans and strategies can roll us forward on the rough and tough road ahead.鈥�

But voters, Torneo notes, resort to 鈥渃ognitive shortcuts鈥� to speed up in making decisions.

Burunquit the taxi driver personally admitted he鈥檒l pick Marcos, Jr. But his family of four 鈥攚ith a housewife, a recently-resigned 30-year-old mechanical engineer, and a 19-year-old university student鈥� decides collectively.

We decide with my wife, he says with a laugh. The Burunquits did so in 2016, voting for Rodrigo Duterte and his running mate Alan Peter Cayetano.

鈥淢y wife will facilitate our collective decision making in our family dinner tomorrow (May 7). Bahala na siya sa amin (she鈥檒l take care of us).鈥�

Mrs. Burunquit is leaning towards Robredo, observes husband Virgilio. Daily radio programs and television news have exposed her to numerous information on all the contenders.

鈥淚f we decide to vote for her,鈥� says the 30-year taxi driver, 鈥渢hat鈥檚 our final decision.鈥�

Editor’s note: This article was originally published in The Filipino Connection.

About the author:

Assistant Professor Jeremaiah Opiniano teaches at the journalism program of the University of Santo Tomas in Manila. He writes overseas migration issues for a nonprofit news service (the Overseas Filipino Workers Journalism Consortium) and publishes stories for a community news outlet (The Filipino Connection) in the Philippines. He holds a PhD in Geography from The University of Adelaide in Australia.